Primary Results Set the Stage for Colorado’s November Elections

Here is a Colorado Primary Recap from Ian Silverii, with The Bighorn Company:

Now that Colorado’s June 30 primaries are (mostly) settled, here’s my read on the field heading into the November 3 general election.

The night’s biggest shock came at the top of the Democratic ticket. Attorney General Phil Weiser (disclosure: The Weiser campaign was a client of The Bighorn Company through 2025) defeated U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in the primary for governor, 56.85% to 43.15% — a stunning 13.7 point margin given that Bennet entered the race in 2025 with commanding name ID lead, a big fundraising edge, and endorsements from most of the state’s Democratic establishment. Weiser ran as the “fighter,” pointing to the 65-plus lawsuits his office has filed against the Trump administration, while Bennet never fully answered why he wanted to leave the Senate. The result is a clear signal of voter frustration with Washington and with establishment incumbents generally. Bennet keeps his Senate seat, which isn’t up until 2028, but Weiser is not only the Democratic Nominee with four months left to go to the General Election, he is essentially the presumptive governor-elect.

The Republican gubernatorial primary, meanwhile, is still not fully resolved. Victor Marx — a military veteran, ministry founder, and first-time candidate from the Colorado Springs area — overtook establishment favorite state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer the day after the election and, as of this writing, leads by roughly 2,000 votes out of more than 515,000 cast (39.9% to 39.5%). Kirkmeyer had the backing of former Gov. Bill Owens, Rep. Gabe Evans, and The Gazette, but struggled to fundraise and to match the momentum Marx built through his national social media following; his endorsers include Lauren Boebert and Mike Flynn. Whoever emerges will face Weiser in a race that is safely Democratic: Republicans haven’t won statewide in Colorado since 2016, and their 2022 nominee for governor lost by nearly 20 points. It’s not out of the question considering Marx’s outlandish claims that the 2026 general election margin could be similar if not larger, delivering Weiser a very large potential mandate.

The US Senate matchup for November is also set, and is also a foregone conclusion. Sen. John Hickenlooper turned back a spirited progressive challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales, winning a much closer than anticipated 52.9% to 47.1% — a 5.8 margin worth noting, since Gonzales closed what had been a 32-point gap earlier in the cycle. He’ll face Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary. I’d put this race as safely Democratic.

The anti-incumbent undercurrent showed up most dramatically in Denver, where 29-year-old self-described Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros ousted 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in the CO-01 primary — a result that, like Weiser’s win, says as much about the national mood as it does about Colorado. Statewide, the structural picture differs sharply from a state like Iowa: of Colorado’s roughly 4 million registered voters, unaffiliated voters are now a majority-plus bloc at about 50.7%, with Democrats at 24.7% and Republicans at 22.2%. Democrats hold the registration edge over the GOP, but independents decide everything here, and in Denver, a combination of young and energized Democrats and Unaffiliated voters tired of the status quo and establishment politicians sent a 30-year incumbent packing in favor or a political upstart who barely registered on the political radar in Colorado until she stunned the state by nearly knocking DeGette off the ballot through the March and April caucus and assembly process.

On the US House map, CO-08 remains the marquee battleground and Colorado’s only true toss-up: state Rep. Manny Rutinel won the Democratic primary decisively (61% to 34% over state Rep. Shannon Bird) and will challenge freshman Republican incumbent Gabe Evans in a district that will draw heavy national spending. In CO-03, incumbent Republican Jeff Hurd dispatched a primary challenge from Ron Hanks by better than two to one and is favored against Democrat Dwayne Romero, though Democrats note recent races there have been closer than the district’s lean suggests. CO-01 is safely Democratic regardless of the primary drama. Further down the ballot, Secretary of State Jena Griswold won a four-way Democratic primary for the open attorney general seat and will face Republican Michael Allen.

Bottom line: the unresolved GOP governor’s primary and Marx’s rise are the signals worth watching about where the Republican base is moving, but the general election math still runs through Colorado’s unaffiliated majority — and the marquee November fight for both parties’ money and attention will be Rutinel vs. Evans in CO-08.

The legislative elections were an interesting battlefield between a slate of progressive candidates backed by a coalition of groups led by labor unions and supported by environmental and conservation groups, youth registration and turnout organizations, and the Working Families Party, facing a slate of moderate candidates backed by business groups united under the banner of One Main Street, a group that has backed more business friendly and centrist candidates in recent primaries as the political battlefield in Colorado shifted from partisan to ideological contests after the collapse of the State GOP in the aftermath of the 2018 election. For the very most part, the leftist slate won, and in many cases, won upsets against incumbents by big margins. Business groups in Colorado are already attempting to contest with the meaning of this newly energized and historically progressive legislature, matched with a pragmatic but determined governor with a mandate from a shockingly progressive electorate.

Bottom line: Colorado has solidified its currently immutable Blue State status as the GOP nominates the least qualified yet potentially most entertaining Republican for Governor, potentially in state history, while a progressive but pragmatic presumptive governor will have to contend with a legislative majority or supermajority in one or both chambers energized by beating back a wave of resources in contested elections and the defeat of one of the state’s longest serving federal elected officials.