Washington State Primary Election Night Update

At 50 to 1, we work with the best consultants in the country. Here is an update on the Washington State legislature primary from Alex Hur with South Cove Strategies:

A week after the initial election results, movement has shifted the narrative on the races to watch heading into the general election. Voters statewide continue to put their faith in Democrats and House Democrats could potentially add up to five seats to their solid majority. 

3rd LD:

In the open House seat race left vacant by Rep. Timm Ormsby (D), Luc Jasmin III (D) and Natalie Poulson (R) will be on the ballot in November. The 3rd LD is a solidly Democratic district so Jasmin will likely be the new Representative for the 3rd legislative district. 

4th LD:

In the open House seat race left vacant by Rep. Suzanne Schmidt (R), Hillary Pham (R) and Trent Maier (R) will be on the ballot for November.

6th LD:

There are two open House seat races because Rep. Mike Volz (R) and Rep. Jenny Graham (R) both chose to retire. 

In Pos 1, Alan Nolan (R) and Michaela Kelso (D) will advance to the general election. 

In Pos 2, Jonathan Bingle (R) and Julia Payne (D) will advance to the general election. 

11th LD:

Incumbent Rep. David Hackney (D) is being challenged by Ashley Fedan (D) and Christian Rombough (R). Rep. Hackney still holds the lead at 42.36% over Fedan at 31.85%. 

12th LD (Potentially +1 Democrats)

Despite being outraised by a significant margin, incumbent Rep. Mike Steele (R) holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Adam James 41.15% to 24.91% in a solidly Republican district.

Incumbent Brian Burnett (R) is in a tough race against challenger Stacy Willoughby (D), leading by only 108 votes. This is a surprisingly close race to watch heading into November. 

14th LD:

Incumbent Rep. Deb Manjarraz (R) has slightly slipped to 51.09% and will face Ezequiel Morfin (D) in the general election. 

Incumbent Rep. Gloria Mendoza (R) has slightly improved her lead over Chelsea Dimas (D) at 51.45% of the vote. Democrats will likely target the 14th LD as potential pick-up opportunities. 

17th LD (Potentially +2 Democrats):

Democrats could flip two House seats in a district that has been a Republican stronghold. 

Incumbent Rep. David Stuebe (R) now trails Diana Perez (D), by nearly 10 points. 

Incumbent Rep. Kevin Waters (R) is holding steady at 43.91% of the vote and will face Ben Christly (D) who has received 52.33% of the vote. 

18th LD: (Potentially +2 Democrats)

In another typically Republican district in SW Washington, Democratic challengers are outperforming the Republican incumbents. 

Incumbent Rep. Stephanie McClintock (R) trails challenger Randi Knott (D) by 4 points. 

Incumbent Rep. John Ley (R) trails challenger Deken Letinich (D) by 7 points. 

24th LD:

In the open House seat race, Kaylee Kuehn (D) and Marcia Kelbon (No Party Preference) will advance to the general election. 

25th LD:

Incumbent Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen (R) holds 48.64% of the vote and will face Jenn Marie Strickling (D) in the general election. 

Incumbent Rep. Michael Keaton (R) holds a 50.22% majority of the vote and will face David Berg (D) in the general election. 

26th LD:

Incumbent Rep. Addison Richards (D) has dipped slightly to 34% of the vote and will face David Olson (R) in November. 

In the open House seat, Renee Hernandez Greenfield (D) will face Katy Cornell (R). 

29th LD:

Both House races will be ones to watch through the November election.  

Incumbent Rep. Melanie Morgan (D) trails her challenger Krista Perez (D) by almost 400 votes.

In the open House seat, Patrick Stickney (D) will face off against Joe Bushnell (D). 

32nd LD:

Incumbent Sen. Jesse Salomon (D) now trails his seatmate Rep. Cindy Ryu (D) by over 2,600 votes. Rep. Ryu has surged ahead in ballot drops since election night. They will face off again in November and this will be an expensive race to watch. 

In the open House seat left vacant by Rep. Cindy Ryu, Danica Noble (D) and Keith Scully (D) will advance to the General Election. 

35th LD:

Incumbent Sen. Drew MacEwen (R) has a 500 vote lead over challenger and current Thurston Co Commissioner Carolina Mejia (D). 

37th LD:

Incumbent Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) trails challenger Kelabe Tewolde (D) by over 1,200 votes. This is certainly a surprise for the long time incumbent and Chair of the House Education Committee, who hasn’t had a real race in over a decade. Tewolde is challenging Santos from the left, and this will be a close race to watch heading into November.  

39th LD:

In the open House seat, Democrat Ida Keely will face off against Steve Ewing (R). The 39th is a solidly Republican district so I predict Ewing will likely prevail in November.  

42nd LD:

In the open Senate seat left vacant by Sen. Sharon Shewmake (D), Erika Creydt (R) will face off against either Michael Shepard (D) or Eamonn Collins (D). Only nine votes separate the two Democratic candidates, which will trigger a recount.  

43rd LD:

Senate Majority Leader and incumbent Sen. Jamie Pedersen (D) holds a 43 point lead against challenger Hannah Sabio-Howell (D). Howell has gained ground since last Tuesday and they will continue campaigning through November. 

45th LD:

In the open House seat, Redmond City Councilmember Vanessa Kritzer (D) is leading John Gibbons (R).

48th LD:

Incumbent Rep. Amy Walen (D) now has a 51 vote lead against challenger Jessica Forsythe (D).